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Applying a complex dynamic systems view of writing development, this study explored how developmental variability can contribute to conceptualizing changes in L2 writing. Forty-two writing samples were collected from one Thai university student in Thailand studying actuary science in English. The writing samples were composed over four years and were holistically coded for degrees of appropriate authorial voice. Descriptive techniques, including linear and polynomial trend lines and a min-max graph, informed a visual inspection of the data. These techniques revealed quantitatively distinct projections of authorial voice that were marked by periods of progress and regress. A Monte Carlo simulation then tested the hypothesis that the variability was not due to chance. The analysis showed that variability played a statistically significant role in constructing authorial voice. This work demonstrates developmental behavior consistent with complex systems and how other measures of L2 writing mature and substantiates findings on the meaningful role variability contributes to L2 development. This study also expands the explanatory potential of complex dynamic systems theory for conceptualizing writing and more generally L2 development.
